实用英语课文及翻译

冬子

美国应小心“人民币升值梦”
Renminbi

Ask US politicians to list their greatest desires and a revaluation of the renminbi is likely to come only slightly below universal democracy in the Middle East and a miraculous disappearance of the social security problem. The ballooning US trade deficit has raced up the political agenda over the past year and China has once again become everyone’s favourite whipping boy. As a result, last week’s obliging remarks from the People’s Bank of China – stressing the importance of exchange rate flexibility – should have gladdened the hearts of US policy makers.

如果让美国政界人士列出自己最大的心愿，那么，“人民币升值”的排名可能只会略低于“中东地区普遍实现民主”和“美国社会保障体系的问题奇迹般消失”。过去一年来，美国贸易逆差日益扩大的问题，在其政治议事日程上的位置急升，中国再度成为人人嘴边的抨击对象。因此，中国人民银行(PBoC)上周强调实现人民币汇率灵活性的重要性，这种“体贴的”言论应该会使美国决策者们感到高兴。


But even if China does break with tradition and follow its recent rhetoric with a prompt and significant revaluation of the renminbi, this is unlikely to reduce the US deficit as much as many American policy makers assume. Most of the low-end goods China excels in vanished from US shores long ago. About half of Chinese exports to the US fall into three categories – office machines, clothing and footwear, toys and other plastic goods – that represent just 4 per cent of US production. A revaluation of the renminbi, therefore, may end up helping Mexico more than the US. An even worse scenario for the US is that China remains the lowest-cost producer of some goods even after a 15 or 20 per cent revaluation. The US might then end up simply paying higher prices for those items, pushing up inflation and even the trade deficit.

然而，即便中国真的结束其惯常做法，而遵循最近的表态，迅速推动人民币大幅升值，美国贸易逆差的降幅也不太可能像许多美国决策者们所想象的那么大。多数中国占优势的低端商品，在美国早就不再生产了。中国出口至美国的商品，约半数可归入三类——办公用品、服装鞋类、玩具和其它塑料制品——这些只占美国产出的4%。因此，人民币升值，其结果可能是对墨西哥的帮助多于美国。对于美国而言，更糟糕的情形是，即便在人民币升值15%或20%之后，中国仍然是某些商品成本最低的生产者。美国最终或许只能为这些商品支付更高的价格，导致其通胀加剧，甚至造成贸易逆差不降反升。


The US experience with the eurozone over recent years should have discouraged assumptions that the country can simply depreciate its trade deficit away. Since its peak against the euro in October 2000, the dollar has fallen by 35 per cent, yet the bilateral deficit with the eurozone has doubled. When a revaluation of the renminbi finally comes, US policymakers may find the experience less sweet than they expected.

近年来美国与欧元区的经贸往来现状，应该能打消“美元贬值、就能减少美国贸易逆差”的假设。自2000年10月美元兑欧元汇率达到峰值水平以来，美元汇率已下跌35%，但美国对欧元区的双边贸易逆差却扩大了一倍。当人民币最终升值的时候，美国决策者们可能会发现，情况并不像他们所预期的那样美妙。


[ 本帖最后由 冬子 于 2007-1-12 00:06 编辑 ]

iptton

PASS BY....

CET-4......

小鲈鱼

原来第一句是这样子翻译的:time::time: